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The Milwaukee Bucks shocked many of united states past showing upwardly for Game i of their NBA playoffs series against the Boston Celtics, asserting their dominance and never letting their grasp on the game loosen. Their functioning in Game ii – a 109-86 rout in favor of the Celtics – was the type of event we braced for at the showtime of the series; had the games been switched chronologically, Bucks fans would be elated at the prospect of splitting the first pair of contests and turning the series into a best-of-5 with home court advantage going into Games 3 and iv. At the end of the day, that result is the one that matters most. Milwaukee just has to beat Boston three more times to punch their ticket for a render to the Eastern Conference Finals.

As was initially expected, that will be easier said than done.

Game 1 of this series was an exercise in tone-setting, where the Bucks established a no-wing zone around the rim as well every bit embraced the physicality that Boston used (to bang-up success) in their previous series against the Brooklyn Nets. Head motorbus Ime Udoka took notes in training for Game 2, and made enough changes to completely overhaul how the game was played, and it was Milwaukee who failed to find shot opportunities from behind the arc, where they took a grand full of 18 attempts, past far the lowest figure in the Mike Budenholzer Era.

How? By irresolute how they defended Giannis Antetokounmpo. From The Athletic:

Just like they did when Antetokounmpo was posting up, the Celtics took the early and piece of cake playmaking opportunities abroad from Antetokounmpo and instead forced him to try to work 1-on-1 against a defender off the distill.

"They're just showing bodies," Antetokounmpo said of why he has struggled to score efficiently in this series. "Beingness agile. Being physical. That's pretty much information technology."

To be articulate, the Celtics were still loading up against Antetokounmpo from a help perspective. When Antetokounmpo touches the ball, all eyes are on him, and the Celtics are notwithstanding edifice a wall of assist defenders. When Robert Williams was in the game, he was still sticking around the rim to attempt to block shots. But the Celtics refused to let Antetokounmpo selection them apart with his passing by throwing early double teams at him before he started his mail-ups or drives and instead forced him to take on their lead defenders one-on-i.

From The Ringer:

Antetokounmpo assisted on more iii-pointers than whatever player also Luka Doncic during the regular season. He trails only Ja Morant for 3-point dimes in the postseason, and set up seven triples in Game 1 by leveraging the extra attention shown to him by Boston's help defenders to feed his teammates. On Tuesday, though, Udoka dialed dorsum the assistance, entrusting Al Horford and Williams to handle the 2-time MVP one-on-ane every bit much every bit possible. Not only did Antetokounmpo not prepare up a unmarried three in Game 2—all seven of his assists created buckets within the arc—but Horford and Williams proved up to the task, banging with Giannis and frustrating him into sick-advised head-on attacks, errant flails and fadeaways, and erratic play that helped put Milwaukee in a hole that would show too large to escape.

By changing where the help on Giannis was coming from, the Celtics curt-circuited Milwaukee's crime past restricting the overall number of three point attempts. To their credit, Boston came out with purpose and never relented in pressuring Milwaukee on the line. To their ignominy, Milwaukee didn't make any in-game changes that might accept increased their 3-point attempt rate; viii attempts in the outset one-half followed by only ten attempts in the second half is simply uncharacteristic and untenable for a Bucks team that's missing Khris Middleton.

In Game 2, the Boston Celtics shot 46.5% from three (on 43 attempts). The Milwaukee Bucks shot 16.seven% (on 18 attempts).

I don't retrieve it'due south normal to expect one squad to out-shoot the other by nearly 30 pct points.

— Mitchell Maurer (@Mitchell_NBA) May 4, 2022

For reference, over the past 4 seasons the Bucks take averaged thirteen.seven makes on 37.eight attempts per game, which comes out to a tidy 0.361 accuracy rate. After Game ii, nosotros find ourselves in a familiar place; a tough postseason environment where Milwaukee seems to have forgotten how to shoot. But Game two wasn't just a bad game in terms of accurateness, they flat-out couldn't find attempts. Using our former friend standard departure, Milwaukee'south eighteen attempts were over iii standard deviations lower than their Bud Era average. That is preposterously depression! That is as far of an outlier as you lot can detect in an NBA game log, and even still this game was closer than the final score would indicate...and had each team performed closer to expected, we might be telling a wildly different story today.

Actual Score: Bucks 86-109 Celtics
ShotQuality Score: Bucks 97.9-97.9 Celtics
Based on the quality of shots taken:
Bucks win fifty% of the time
Celtics win 50% of the time pic.twitter.com/JmwM67qczr

— ShotQuality (@Shot_Quality) May four, 2022

Every bit surprising as it might sound, the Bucks' defence force has maintained its structure and then far. Out of 164 Boston shot attempts, 93 have been three-pointers. Less than half of the Celtics' shots (71, well-nigh 43%) are coming from inside the arc, and a practiced number of those attempts (18, based on reviewing the shot charts from Game 1 and Game 2) have been outside the paint. All in all, Boston is taking less than one-3rd of their attempts near the rim, and unless their outlier conversion rate holds up the Celtics offense is going to get pulled back into the mud...correct next to Milwaukee'southward.

But defence alone isn't going to correct the ship and get the Bucks out in front in this series. They need to bring their offense back online, and that ways both finding shots for their outside shooters and Giannis Antetokounmpo sorting out whatsoever it is that needs sorting out. For anyone who hasn't watched the games, Giannis has gotten enough looks...but he'southward not putting them in.

NBA.com

That's an atrocious lot of scarlet Xs in the pigment, far more than y'all'd await for one of the league's historically-great shut-range scorers. But without Khris Middleton to take the tough shots or set Giannis up with selection-and-roll actions, the Greek Freak is reverting to onetime habits nearly out of necessity. Also Jrue Holiday (who has likewise been iffy on crime, going xv-for-40 from the field), Milwaukee doesn't have a credible ball-handler that can accept control of the crime so that Giannis doesn't have to, and the issue is a ton more than "hero ball" than we've get accustomed to.

The easiest and most obvious non-schematic alter would be to change the starting lineup and downsize from Bobby Portis to one of Milwaukee's reserve wings. Wes Matthews already has a business firm grasp his starting role, as his physical defense has been instrumental in limiting the Boston offense. That means the realistic candidates for moving Bobby to the bench are either Pat Connaughton or Grayson Allen; Jevon Carter is also small and is needed to provide defensive cover when Jrue Holiday needs rest. George Loma, if healthy, could be a viable option to keep both Allen and Connaughton with the reserves, and his ability to orchestrate offense could come up in handy...but that will simply work if he'due south 100% fix to become, which has non been the case lately.

Benching Bobby would not be a demotion, and really might be a blessing; Portis' offense has been productive but doesn't prop up the squad'southward offense as a whole, and unless he's vacuuming upward offensive rebounds (Milwaukee had but ten OREBs in Game 1, and five in Game 2) his scoring is the sort of asset that fits anywhere within the game. On defense, he'southward performed admirably with his action level and while he doesn't protect the rim the aforementioned as Giannis or Brook Lopez, he's an adequate barrier when supported past one of those two. It'southward strange to propose that Portis – a 38% career three-point shooter – should be removed from the starting lineup in club to add more shooting, merely it merely might be necessary. Regardless, he'll still go his minutes (and his shots) as a office of Bud's 3-big rotation.

Beyond that, the Bucks accept a few days to soul-search and figure out just what they need to do in gild to fuel their offense to proceed upwards with Boston. The defense is where information technology needs to be, and dedicated effort must continue to be applied in society to limit the Celtics' offensive assail. As long as that holds up, Milwaukee just needs to brand a few changes to ameliorate place the ball into the basket, and with a pair of games at Fiserv Forum coming up, the Bucks are in good position to establish a significant advantage in the series.

At present they just have to do it.

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Source: https://www.brewhoop.com/2022/5/4/23056938/conundrum-the-milwaukee-bucks-challenge-solving-the-boston-celtics-nba-playoffs

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